The Premortem for Personal Goals

Published October 4, 2026.

Imagine it is a year from now and the goal did not happen. Then write down why, while you can still change it.

A premortem is a short exercise where you imagine your goal has already failed, then write down the reasons why. It was designed for project teams, but it works well for personal goals too. You finish with a list of likely problems and a plan for each, before any of them happen.

Where the premortem comes from

The research psychologist Gary Klein described the method in Harvard Business Review in 2007. His key idea was a change of tense. A normal planning meeting asks what might go wrong. A premortem assumes the project has already failed and asks what did go wrong. Source.

The method builds on earlier work on what researchers call prospective hindsight, where people "look back from the future" to spot problems before they occur. Deborah Mitchell, J. Edward Russo and Nancy Pennington wrote about it in 1989. Source. The appeal is simple: it is often easier to explain something that already happened than to guess at something that might.

A fair note. Most writing on premortems is about teams and projects. We have not found studies that test it on personal goals by name. Treat it as a practical habit with a sensible idea behind it, not a proven cure.

Why it pairs well with planning backward

When you plan backward, you start by writing the goal as done. That is the hopeful half. A premortem is the honest half: the same finish line, written as not done. Research on mental contrasting suggests the two belong together. Picturing the goal and then the obstacle in the way tends to help more than picturing the goal alone. For the everyday version of that idea, see the WOOP method.

How to run a personal premortem in 15 minutes

1. Write the goal as done. One sentence, past tense, with a date. "By June 30 I finished the first draft of my novel."
2. Flip it. Now write: "It is June 30. The draft is not finished." Sit with that for a moment.
3. List the reasons. Set a five minute timer and write every reason it failed. Do not filter. Small and silly reasons count.
4. Circle the top three. Pick the reasons that feel most likely, not the most dramatic.
5. Write an if-then plan for each. "If I miss two writing days in a row, then I will write for 15 minutes the next morning before email."
6. Change the plan. Add or move one milestone because of what you found. A premortem that changes nothing was just worry.

A worked example

Leo's goal: "By September 1 I saved enough for a three month emergency fund." He runs a premortem.

The flip: "It is September 1. I did not reach the goal."

Reasons he wrote in five minutes: I never set up an automatic transfer. A car repair ate the savings. I kept "rewarding" myself after hard weeks. I did not know my real monthly spending, so the target was a guess. I stopped checking after April.

Top three: no automatic transfer, unknown spending, stopped checking.

If-then plans:

• "If it is payday, then the transfer goes out the same morning, set up once this week."
• "If I do not know a number, then I will look at last month's statement before guessing."
• "If it is the first Sunday of the month, then I check the balance and write it down."

Plan change: Leo adds a new first milestone: "By the end of this month I knew my real monthly spending." His first 45 minute action is to go through last month's statement.

The premortem did not make the goal smaller. It moved one quiet risk, an unknown target, to the front of the plan.

Premortem vs worrying

Some people hear "imagine it failed" and think it sounds like worrying with extra steps. The difference is in the shape.

• Worry has no end. It loops. A premortem has a timer, five minutes for reasons and ten for plans.
• Worry is vague. "What if it all goes wrong?" A premortem asks for specific reasons you can write down and circle.
• Worry leaves you where you started. A premortem ends with if-then plans and at least one change to the plan.

If you notice the exercise making you anxious rather than clear, stop after the top three reasons and go straight to the plans. The goal is to feel more prepared, not less hopeful. Then return to the version written as done, which is where Reverse Journaling starts, and read it once before you close the journal.

When to run one

• When you start a goal that will take more than a month.
• When you have tried the same goal before and it did not work.
• When a lot depends on one date, like an exam, a launch or a race.
• When a plan feels too easy. That is often a sign something is missing.

Tips for a better premortem

• Use the past tense. "It failed because" works better than "it might fail if". That is the whole trick.
• Look inside first. Outside events matter, but you can plan for your own habits most easily.
• Be kind. The goal is a list of fixable things, not a case against yourself.
• Ask someone. A friend who knows you may name a reason you missed. Klein's method was built for groups for that reason.
• Repeat at milestones. Run a two minute version each time you reach a checkpoint.

Try it on one goal

Pick one goal, flip it, and give yourself five minutes of reasons. Then plan around the top three. If you want the backward path laid out first, the free reverse planner drafts dated milestones from a goal written as done, so you can run the premortem on a real plan. When you want daily follow-through, Start From Done keeps your if-then plans next to a daily 45 minute sprint. The core is free. To go further on if-then plans, read implementation intentions.

Questions

What is a premortem?

A premortem is a planning exercise where you imagine a goal or project has already failed, then list the reasons why. You then plan around the most likely reasons before you start.

Who created the premortem?

The research psychologist Gary Klein described it in Harvard Business Review in 2007. It builds on earlier work on prospective hindsight by Mitchell, Russo and Pennington from 1989.

Can I use a premortem for personal goals?

Yes. The method was designed for teams, but the steps work the same for one person. We have not found research testing it on personal goals by name, so treat it as a practical habit.

Is a premortem just negative thinking?

No. It is time-boxed and ends with plans. You name likely problems so you can prepare for them, then go back to the plan.

How is a premortem different from WOOP?

Both pair the goal with obstacles. WOOP asks for your main inner obstacle and one if-then plan. A premortem lists many reasons for failure first, then plans for the top few.

Keep reading

• Reverse Goal Setting: How to Plan Backward From DoneReverse goal setting starts at the finished goal and plans backward to today. 7 min read.
• Backward Planning (Backcasting) for Personal GoalsBackward planning, or backcasting, starts from the finished goal and works back to today. 5 min read.
• How to Plan Your Year BackwardPlan your year backward: write December as done, set four quarterly checkpoints, then pick one 45-minute action for this week. 6 min read.
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